| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Robert Morris | 45-3 | 1689.0 | +14.8 | 1703.8 | 98.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Ohio | 10-17 | 1703.8 | -24.6 | 1679.2 | 58.7% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Pittsburgh | 31-24 | 1679.2 | +21.8 | 1701.0 | 38.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Kansas | 10-41 | 1701.0 | -70.4 | 1630.6 | 33.1% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Utah | 14-48 | 1630.6 | -64.6 | 1566.0 | 24.1% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | L | BYU | 24-38 | 1566.0 | +31.8 | 1597.8 | 8.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | UCF | 13-45 | 1604.6 | -39.9 | 1564.7 | 31.1% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | TCU | 17-23 | 1564.7 | +16.6 | 1581.3 | 16.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Houston | 45-35 | 1581.3 | +39.2 | 1620.5 | 26.8% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Colorado | 29-22 | 1620.5 | +4.5 | 1625.0 | 49.2% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Arizona State | 23-25 | 1625.0 | +14.9 | 1639.9 | 25.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 0-49 | 1636.5 | -44.2 | 1592.3 | 6.8% |