| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Coastal Carolina | 31-24 | 1585.5 | -2.3 | 1583.2 | 78.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | UT Martin | 52-7 | 1583.2 | +39.4 | 1622.5 | 94.4% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Virginia | 38-27 | 1622.5 | +31.5 | 1654.0 | 19.3% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Oklahoma State | 24-41 | 1654.0 | -55.3 | 1598.8 | 55.4% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Iowa State | 42-45 | 1598.8 | +25.6 | 1624.3 | 26.0% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Arizona | 31-52 | 1624.3 | -14.6 | 1609.7 | 23.3% |